VIX Regime
The four bands MarketGrep uses to interpret VIX levels: <15 low-vol, 15–20 neutral, 20–30 elevated, >30 stress.
The VIX is the CBOE's 30-day implied volatility on the S&P 500, derived from the option chain. It is a forward-looking measure of how much the option market expects SPX to move over the next month, expressed as an annualised volatility.
MarketGrep's regime bands
- VIX < 15 — low-volatility regime. Calm uptrend or melt-up. Compressed implieds; protection is cheap. Historically associated with broad participation and trending price action.
- VIX 15–20 — neutral regime. Most days fall here. Small-to-medium daily moves expected.
- VIX 20–30 — elevated regime. Markets are nervous. Implieds are pricing in two-way risk. Position sizing should reflect wider expected moves.
- VIX > 30 — stress regime. A meaningful liquidation event is in progress or has just happened. Historically rare; mean-reverts faster than realised volatility.
What VIX does not tell you
The VIX is a market-wide volatility measure. It does not capture single-stock dispersion, sector-specific stress, or the difference between calm uptrends and calm downtrends. The turbulence index is the multivariate complement.
Related
MarketGrep is a market-environment dashboard. Every signal on this page is descriptive, not prescriptive — there is no buy or sell recommendation anywhere on the site. Data is for informational purposes only and may be delayed, inaccurate, or revised.